Arc de Triomphe: ‘Proper Soft’ Track Hampers Japanese Hopes

The opening day of this year’s Arc event took place in clear sunshine on the weekend, but the chunks of grass being kicked up in the top-tier Prix du Cadran were a sign of the heavy downpour that had fallen since Friday night, altering the outlook and storyline of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

“Very soft and it’s going to take a lot of getting,” was the verdict of the winning jockey after his victory on his mount in the opening Prix Chaudenay, a opinion that was shared by another rider, the victorious jockey aboard George Scott’s Caballo De Mar.

“It’s very soft but not too deep,” he said. “I think it would be an injustice to call it deep because they’ve done a excellent job of having us on the nicest part of the track, and on Sunday it will open out again to renew it, but it’s testing.”

Whether for better or worse, the prospects of all seventeen runners have been influenced by the abrupt softening of the track, but the most obvious losers in the conditions gamble have been the 3 runners from the Asian nation, attempting to succeed where 33 compatriots have failed over the past 56 years.

Just a week ago, Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii and a third horse were all valued between eight-to-one and sixteen-to-one, the firm surface had survived well beyond its usual mid-September cut-off point at Longchamp and there was even talk of the favorite approaching the peak of the market as punters favored the selection of Oisin Murphy to ride.

All three runners were also heading into the Arc following a success in a recognised trial, an rare level of quality for a Japanese challenge. But the recent draw for starting positions left both Byzantine Dream and Croix Du Nord marooned in outside gates, the rain has increased the scale of their mission and each are now offered at 14-1 or higher.

This does not, of course, mean that they cannot win, but each will start with their chance significantly diminished. Japanese racing is conducted almost exclusively on fast surfaces or quicker, so the studs and mares in its breeding programme are fast-ground horses. It typically requires a peak effort to capture an Arc, and the three are not expected to achieve their top condition on the rain-softened ground or, in the instance of one runner and another, from a outside gate.

The balance has tipped appreciably towards the Europeans, and runners from the host nation, Ireland and Britain now fill the top six slots in the betting for what remains an remarkably competitive edition of the European showpiece event.

André Fabre is aiming for a record win in the Arc and will fancy his chances with Sosie, a 9-1 shot, and another runner, at around 12-1.

The Irish trainer’s Minnie Hauk, undefeated in four races this season including the Oaks and Irish Oaks, is a narrow favourite from the Prix Vermeille victor, Aventure, who was a length and a quarter behind the third in runner-up a year ago.

The mare, the defeated favourite when fourth-placed previously, is a nine-to-one shot to deliver André Fabre a unprecedented ninth Arc, while Daryz, a close second to Croix Du Nord over a mile and a quarter at Longchamp in their trial last month, is a twelve-to-one chance alongside Kalapana, the Ascot second, and another Fabre-trained runner, Cualificar.

Each of these have plenty to recommend them, but the odd doubt about their prospects too. The favorite has a tricky stall next to the inside in gate 1, which has not housed the Arc victor since 2008, while the filly took a Group One in which the favourite, Whirl, obviously did not manage to run near her best. The mare, in contrast, was a long way below of her King George form in her Arc warm-up at Kempton recently, and Sosie has not been obviously improved as a older horse.

This makes Daryz and another as interesting options, not least because they are also the probable contenders to make a significant step forward on the occasion that matters most.

The colt, who was likely fortunate not to beat the Japanese horse last time out, has only 6 starts in the record and while he is moving up to a mile and a half for the first time, he is a product of the the owner’s breeding operation and almost sure to appreciate the additional quarter-mile.

Cualificar (the race time), though, is almost equally untested at the distance, having had his first start at the complete Arc trip just recently when he was victorious in the the trial. His trainer’s record in the event speaks for itself – Fabre has already secured twice as many wins as any rival trainer in its century-plus history – and he has plotted a careful path towards the venue with his latest young hopeful.

He was a comfortable winner of the Prix Niel – the launch-pad for the trainer’s 6 previous three-year-old Arc winners – and while he has a bit to make up with Minnie Hauk and Aventure on ratings, appears nearly sure to progress markedly on that form on Sunday.

William Buick will also have plenty of options from an ideal draw in stall eight and at around 12-1 with British oddsmakers, Cualificar is an strong bet to give France’s greatest trainer yet another win in his home premier race.